PARK RIDGE, Ill. — Auto makers and suppliers have unveiled a technology that could launch a new era in safety for the auto industry. The technology not only detects imminent danger, but could one day override the driver and actively avoid collisions.

Introduced at this week's International Automobile Fair in Frankfurt, Germany, the technology signals a major shift in automotive thinking because it takes vehicles into the primitive stages of autonomous control.

Using such technologies as forward-looking radar, infrared sensing and microprocessor control, the new systems can detect objects in front and alongside vehicles and then initiate safety measures, ranging from tightening the slack in the seat belts to possibly taking control of the steering wheel. A cadre of the world's biggest auto makers and vendors, including Mercedes-Benz, Delphi Automotive Systems, Visteon Corp. and Bosch Automotive Group, demonstrated such systems in Frankfurt.

If the new technology is embraced by the public, it could open up a huge market for radar-, ultrasonic- and infrared-based sensors. It could also add to the auto industry's already-voracious appetite for computing power.

For consumers, the technology introductions could have even greater impact. Industry analysts say that the introductions lay the foundation for eventual deployment of autonomous vehicle control. Auto makers are said to be eager to launch autonomous safety features because those features reportedly offer the potential for huge reductions in automotive collisions and fatalities. At the same time, however, most car manufacturers are treading lightly in this arena because they're not yet sure how drivers will respond to the idea of a vehicle wresting control of the steering wheel or brakes away from them.

"It's a very delicate issue and it will take a number of years to find out if drivers accept it," said David Cole, director of the Center for Automotive Research (Ann Arbor, Mich.). "But it's a very important issue because we believe that autonomous control offers the potential for a 90 percent reduction in traffic fatalities."

Critical lapse

The crux of the concept, which is commercialized under various names, is that most accidents are caused by inattentiveness. "What you see in all crash data is that driver error is a huge factor," Cole said. "With appropriate interdiction, there's no doubt you could prevent most of those accidents."

In studies performed by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, General Motors and others, most accidents were boiled down to a single critical second in which drivers weren't paying attention. Often, such moments involved harried parents with kids in the back seat, or distracted drivers making cell phone calls. The majority occurred during daylight.

"Accidents tend to occur in benign environments," said Glenn Widmann, chief engineer of Integrated Safety Systems for Delphi Automotive Systems (Troy, Mich.). "All of the studies show that if you give a driver one second of advance warning, you can reduce the number of accidents by 80 percent to 90 percent."

To help during that critical second, auto makers and suppliers are laying the groundwork by employing sensors on the front of vehicles and then tying the data from those sensors into vehicle microprocessors. The systems use various commercial names. Mercedes-Benz, for example, has dubbed its system "Pre-Safe," while Delphi calls it the "Integrated Safety System" and Visteon refers to its system as a "Smart Radar Cocoon."

Most of the embodiments offer radar-based forward collision warning sensors, which project a radar beam out to a distance of 150 meters in search of objects in the roadway. Those systems usually work in conjunction with so-called Adaptive Cruise Control systems, which can automatically adjust the cruise speed for the presence of vehicles in the same lane. The systems generally try to maintain a distance of one to two seconds between themselves and the vehicle in front of them.

Audible warning

All of the front-radar systems, which operate in the GHz frequency range, are placed behind the front fascia of a vehicle. If a radar beam from the vehicle strikes an object in front of it, a return signal causes a Doppler shift in the device's frequency. By analyzing that Doppler shift, the system's software can judge the relative speeds and positions of targets in front of it.

Suppliers are employing the data to do collision warning and pre-crash sensing. During collision warning, the systems provide an audible warning during the critical second before a crash, thus giving drivers a chance to avoid the accident. Pre-crash sensing represents the next chronological step — when the crash is imminent and unavoidable.

"Pre-crash sensing means that something is going to happen in the next 200 to 300 milliseconds," said Widmann of Delphi. "It means the collision is imminent. You can't stop it."

While features such as Adaptive Cruise Control are already in production, most pre-crash sensing systems are still in advanced development, awaiting adoption by an OEM.

This week in Frankfurt, Mercedes-Benz demonstrated what may arguably be the most advanced collision warning system yet, incorporating features that could help occupants withstand an unavoidable crash. The auto maker's Pre-Safe system includes methods to automatically remove slack from seat belts and reconfigure the area around the occupants. The system activates electric motors that automatically tilt the seat cushions to the rear, while other systems move interior door panels, so that they "mold themselves" around the occupants' hips like protective shields.

Such techniques stop short of firing air bags before the collision, mainly because even the best forward-looking sensors are unable to determine the mass of an object.

"There's no way you can tell the difference between an empty refrigerator box in the roadway and a full refrigerator box," said Ian Lau, program executive for safety devices at General Motors' Research & Development Center (Warren, Mich.). "And the difference, in terms of impact, between an empty box and a full one could be huge. That's why you would never fire an air bag sensor based on a radar signal alone."

Still, engineers said that air bag operation could benefit from the use of radar and other sensors. By knowing that a crash is imminent, the system could change its threshold for deployment of the bag. As a result, air bag systems, which typically wait for a certain level of accelerometer feedback, might wait for a slightly lower level of feedback, and then fire a fraction of a second earlier.

"Normally, you'd keep the threshold high so that normal street bumps don't set it off," Widmann said. "But under imminent crash circumstances, you might trigger it earlier."

If consumers find such features appealing, industry experts believe the market for radar-, ultrasonic- and IR-based sensors will grow quickly. Today, such sensors cost about $500 to $700 for OEMs to install near the front bumper, while the integrated package of warning features costs consumers approximately $2,000 to $2,500.

Engineers, however, expect to see those prices drop, especially if consumers show interest. "We expect to see a 4 percent to 5 percent decrease per year in price," said Tim Tiernan, manager of collision avoidance technologies for Visteon Corp. (Dearborn, Mich.). "Then, as production volume rises, the costs will drop even more."

Tiernan believes that radar systems will be the most popular type of forward-looking sensor, mainly because radar has the ability to "see" through snow and fog. "You need these systems most when you can't see well," Tiernan said. "A forward-collision warning system must be all-weather compatible."

Easily tricked

For OEMs and vendors alike, however, the brunt of the development costs may lie in software, not hardware. One key reason is that such systems can be easily tricked if developers fail to write comprehensive software programs. An overly simple system, for example, might not recognize a curve in the road ahead, and therefore mistake a guardrail for an obstacle. Software developers are currently working to endow the systems with the ability to recognize such situations.

"By itself, the radar technology itself can't give you the consumer benefits you need," Tiernan said. "That's why we spend more than half of our engineering resources on algorithm development."

If such systems do take off in the marketplace, experts say that the auto industry will then have another decision to make: whether to allow smart systems to grab control of the steering wheel when the driver isn't paying attention. Using by-wire systems such as electric steering and electric braking, engineers say they will soon have the ability to provide such autonomous control.

Engineers and industry analysts agree that today's consumers would never allow it. "Most people don't want the car to take control and steer them out of an accident," Widmann said. "They're just not comfortable with the idea."

Even if such efforts were wildly successful, industry analysts believe acceptance would be gradual at best. "It's not a sure bet," Cole said. "Just as we saw with air bags, there are going to be legal issues if it's not perfect."

Still, industry analysts are convinced that some level of the technology is ultimately good for the public. "Acceptance could be problematic," Cole said. "But when you have a technology that can reduce fatalities by 90 percent, you have a responsibility to take a very serious look at it."